Pakistan Harden its Stance on Afghanistan; Interim Afghan Government Under Pressure (15-21 December 2023)

The week under review witnessed a concerning surge in militant attacks, with particular
attention on the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) region. A total of 13 militant attacks were reported,
resulting in 17 fatalities and 20 injuries. The majority of these incidents occurred in KP, with seven
attacks, while three attacks took place in the erstwhile Federally Administered Tribal Areas
(FATA). Balochistan, Punjab, and Sindh each experienced one attack. Notably, Sarfraz Ahmed
Bungulzai, a ‘commander’ of the banned militant group Baloch National Army (BNA), made a
significant surrender alongside 70 associates in Balochistan.
The Supreme Court’s intervention has injected optimism for timely elections in Pakistan.
Following the Election Commission of Pakistan’s (ECP) plea, the Supreme Court suspended a
Lahore High Court order, allowing the ECP to announce a schedule for the February 8, 2024,
general elections. Separately, the court clarified that objections to constituency delimitation
would be deemed inadmissible after the election schedule is announced. However, dissent
emerged from legal circles, with bar associations expressing concerns about the Chief Election
Commissioner’s ability to ensure free and fair polls.
The Islamabad High Court’s dismissal of ex-premier Imran Khan’s petition in the
Toshakhana case and challenges to the PTI’s electoral symbol add complexities to the electoral
landscape.
Pakistan has hardened its stance on Afghanistan, asserting the continuation of the “onedocument regime” for Afghan citizens entering Pakistan. Caretaker Prime Minister Anwaarul Haq
Kakar defended Pakistan’s repatriation policy, emphasizing its migrant burden and concerns
about Afghans’ involvement in suicide bombings. Pakistan urged a UN panel to investigate how
the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) acquires modern weaponry, highlighting the threat posed
by such groups. Pakistan’s new conditions for engagement with the Afghan Taliban, emphasizing
action against the TTP, mark a departure from previous unconditional engagement approaches.
Meanwhile, the interim Afghan government grapples with balancing relations with the TTP and
Pakistan, with reduction of attacks in bordering districts seen as a key indicator of the Taliban
government’s seriousness.
In response to a militant attack in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, Iranian Interior
Minister Ahmad Vahidi called on Pakistan to protect their common border and prevent terrorist
groups from establishing bases. Pakistan reaffirmed its commitment to combat terrorism in
collaboration with Iran, recognizing it as a shared challenge. Enhanced cooperation between
Pakistan and Iran on counter-terrorism is considered crucial for improving overall diplomatic and
trade relations between the two nations.

To access the complete security assessment report
(15 – 21 Dec 2023)

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During the week of March 7–13, 2025, Pakistan witnessed a slight decrease in militant attacks, though the intensity of violence remained unchanged. A total of 15 militant attacks were recorded, compared to 19 in the previous week. However, the week gained significant attention due to the hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a high-profile incident that unfolded over three days. The attack resulted in the tragic killing of 21 hostages — later revealed by PICSS to be off-duty security personnel traveling home — and four security forces personnel. Despite a phased rescue operation that eliminated 33 militants, the incident highlighted serious security and intelligence failures.Regionally, Balochistan saw a sharp 80% surge in militant activity, reporting nine attacks compared to five the previous week. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) experienced a 50% drop, with three attacks, while erstwhile FATA recorded a 25% decrease, reporting three incidents. The week’s militant tactics included five targeted killings, five tactical assaults, two grenade attacks, and one each of an IED explosion, a combined suicide attack and tactical assault, and a kidnapping.Security forces carried out four counter-terrorism operations, resulting in the elimination of 12 alleged militants and the arrest of 10 […]

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