Militant becoming more lethal in attacks, technical prowess enhanced: PICSS Monthly Insight Oct 2024
In October 2024, Pakistan faced a mixed landscape regarding security situation, marked by a slight decline in the number of militant attacks while witnessing a significant rise in fatalities. The country reported 68 militant incidents, a decrease from 77 in September and83 in August. However, the death toll surged to 117, a 52 percent increase from the previous month. This alarming rise in casualties, where 45 percent were security personnel, 32 percent civilians, and 22 percent militants, underscores the intensified violence between militant groups and security forces, particularly evident in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province, which accounted for 87 percent of the attacks. Tactical assaults notably increased from 21 in September to 35 in October, resulting in 85 deaths, while targeted killings and IED attacks declined, indicating a shift towards more lethal confrontations.
In response to this escalation, security forces were proactive, eliminating 72 militants and apprehending 22 suspects across the country. Amid rising violence, the government proposed amendments to the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), aiming for preemptive detention of suspected terrorists. While these changes are designed to enhance security, they raise concerns regarding potential misuse against political dissenters, particularly in sensitive regions like Balochistan, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to counter-terrorism measures.
The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) revealed its newly formed intelligence wing, the Zephyr Intelligence Research & Analysis Bureau (ZIRAB), following a deadly attack on a Chinese convoy in Karachi. This incident highlighted the BLA’s capability in both physical insurgency and intelligence warfare, aiming to project operational superiority and disrupt narratives surrounding security in Pakistan. This evolving strategy necessitates a reassessment of counter-insurgency tactics as the BLA seeks to leverage ZIRAB for its operations.
The socio-political landscape in Balochistan is deteriorating, driven by rising insecurity and economic distress. Mahmood Khan Achakzai, leader of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP), announced public gatherings to mobilize support against escalating violence along national highways. These jirgas aim to address public grievances over insecurity and government negligence. Concurrently, the Balochistan Assembly is witnessing protests over the government’s closure of the Iran-Pakistan border, further highlighting economic grievances that have arisen due to security concerns .
The prohibition of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) on October 6, 2024, illustrates the complex dynamics within the Pashtun regions, as the federal government cited national security for the ban. However, the KP government intervened, allowing the PTM to hold a jirga to voice their concerns about violence and security in tribal areas. This dialogue reflects potential shift towards constructive engagement between the government and local movements, emphasizing the urgent need for a more inclusive approach to address grievances.
Political temperature was high at the start of the month and intensified during the subsequent weeks but now the storm has somehow settled at least for now. Protests led by the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) against the government escalated. Significant clashes occurred in Islamabad and Lahore, resulting in over 100 arrests, including notable political figures. The protests were fueled by concerns over proposed constitutional amendments aimed at stabilizing the ruling coalition, highlighting PTI’s strategic opposition to government actions. Tensions persisted despite PTI temporarily suspending protests, as internal divisions and plans for future demonstrations emerged.
The government’s recent constitutional amendments to the judiciary, including changes to the Supreme Court’s structure and Chief Justice appointment process, have sparked controversy. While the government promotes these changes as necessary for judicial accountability, opposition parties have criticized them as encroachments on judicial independence. The amendments reflect a divided legal community and could lead to challenges in the courts, raising questions about the future of judicial oversight in Pakistan.
On the economic front, following the approval of a bailout package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the government has prioritized economic revival through tax reforms and foreign investment attraction, particularly from Gulf countries. Notably, agreements with Saudi Arabia and with Qatar in future signal a potential recovery path, although security concerns remain a significant hurdle for sustained investment.
Security incidents targeting Chinese nationals, such as the suicide bombing near Karachi, underscore the challenges in protecting foreign investments, particularly those related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This has raised urgent diplomatic discussions between China and Pakistan regarding enhanced security measures. Pakistan’s commitment to addressing these threats is critical, as it faces pressure from China to ensure the safety ofits nationals and maintain bilateral economic relations.
Recent engagement Pakistan and Russia as well as joint counter-terrorism exercise between Pakistan and Russia highlights an evolving defense partnership that aims to strengthen political and economic ties amid broader regional security challenges. Pakistan’s proactive engagement with both China and Russia indicates a multifaceted approach to navigating the complex geopolitical landscape and addressing domestic security concerns.
Overall, Pakistan’s security situation remains precarious, marked by rising fatalities and shifting militant tactics. The government’s legislative responses and political dynamics will significantly influence the country’s ability to stabilize its security environment and foster economic recovery amidst these challenges
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During the week of March 7–13, 2025, Pakistan witnessed a slight decrease in militant attacks, though the intensity of violence remained unchanged. A total of 15 militant attacks were recorded, compared to 19 in the previous week. However, the week gained significant attention due to the hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a high-profile incident that unfolded over three days. The attack resulted in the tragic killing of 21 hostages — later revealed by PICSS to be off-duty security personnel traveling home — and four security forces personnel. Despite a phased rescue operation that eliminated 33 militants, the incident highlighted serious security and intelligence failures.Regionally, Balochistan saw a sharp 80% surge in militant activity, reporting nine attacks compared to five the previous week. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) experienced a 50% drop, with three attacks, while erstwhile FATA recorded a 25% decrease, reporting three incidents. The week’s militant tactics included five targeted killings, five tactical assaults, two grenade attacks, and one each of an IED explosion, a combined suicide attack and tactical assault, and a kidnapping.Security forces carried out four counter-terrorism operations, resulting in the elimination of 12 alleged militants and the arrest of 10 […]
