IED Blast in Swat: Rising Threats to Diplomats and National Security
By Abdullah Khan
Incident Overview and Immediate Implications On Sunday, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) blast targeted a police vehicle in Malam Jabba, Swat, within Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The vehicle was part of the protection squad assigned to foreign diplomats from 12 countries. Fortunately, no diplomats were harmed, raising concerns about the blast’s intended target: was it aimed at the diplomats or the police?
While it might seem straightforward to assume the police were the primary target, this view seems overly simplistic. Initial investigations point to a remote-controlled explosion, but the broader question remains: who had prior knowledge of the diplomats’ security route? With 36 police personnel deputed for their protection, the fact that militants placed the IED precisely along the convoy’s path suggests insider information was likely leaked.
The trip was organized by the Islamabad Chamber of Commerce and Industries (ICCI), in collaboration with the Swat Chamber of Commerce and Industries. However, ICCI had directly liaised with the Malakand Division Police for security, bypassing other channels. As such, the tour details were accessible to at least three major entities—ICCI, Swat Chamber, and the Malakand Police. This raises concerns about internal security breaches, potentially hinting at someone within these ranks leaking critical information to militant groups.
Shifting Militant Tactics: The Return of High-Profile Targeting? A key worry here is the possible shift in the TTP’s strategy. For years, militants avoided targeting foreign diplomats, with a few notable exceptions (e.g., attacks on Chinese nationals). If this attack signals a renewed focus on foreign dignitaries, it could mark a dangerous escalation, threatening Pakistan’s already precarious international standing.
Recently, rumors surfaced about a leaked letter from the TTP Shura suggesting a potential shift in operational focus. While initially dismissed as fake, some sources confirmed the letter’s authenticity, highlighting growing friction within the TTP ranks. Specifically, Jamat-ul-Ahrar (JuA) loyalists appear frustrated with Mufti Noor Wali’s leadership, which has imposed restrictions on high-profile targets since 2018. JuA, which has operated under pseudonyms like Hizbul Ahrar to evade international sanctions, is infamous for large-scale attacks—such as the 2016 Gulshan-e-Iqbal Park bombing in Lahore, which claimed over 70 lives, and the 2014 Wahga Border stadium attack that resulted in numerous fatalities.
JuA’s renewed activities signal a dangerous realignment within the TTP. The Swat blast could very well be the handiwork of JuA loyalists seeking to reassert their presence through high-profile attacks. If true, this development is highly concerning, as JuA’s modus operandi has historically involved mass-casualty events with significant civilian tolls.
Challenges Facing Security Forces The bomb disposal squad (BDS) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Police had reportedly cleared the route before the convoy’s passage, raising serious questions about the BDS’s operational effectiveness. As pointed out by Khorasan Diary, a portal monitoring militant activity, the IED was sophisticated enough to evade detection, suggesting possible gaps in the police’s anti-IED capabilities.
A key concern is whether KP Police possess the requisite counter-IED technology. Neighboring countries, such as India, have developed vehicles that can detect and neutralize remote-controlled IEDs or those triggered via circuit-based mechanisms. If the KP Police lack similar equipment, it highlights an urgent need for capacity-building to combat evolving militant tactics.
Geopolitical Ramifications: Timing and External Interference? The timing of this attack also raises important geopolitical questions. Pakistan is set to host the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit next month, a high-profile event that will bring world leaders to the country. Some analysts speculate that elements opposed to Pakistan’s increasing diplomatic engagement may be seeking to undermine the summit by fostering an atmosphere of insecurity. Militant attacks at this juncture could potentially deter international leaders from attending, thus delivering a major blow to Pakistan’s diplomatic stature.
In addition to geopolitical concerns, the revival of international cricket in Pakistan could also be at risk. With the ICC Champions Trophy scheduled for 2025, any deterioration in the security landscape could jeopardize Pakistan’s hosting rights. The 2009 attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team deprived Pakistan of hosting international tournaments for over a decade—a setback the country cannot afford to repeat. Maintaining stringent security at this time is not just a matter of national interest but crucial for preserving Pakistan’s global reputation.
Operational Setbacks and Growing Concerns A broader concern is the rapid backsliding in security gains made since Operation Zarb-e-Azb, a military operation that significantly weakened militant networks. According to data from the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), the average number of militant attacks per month in the first eight months of 2024 was 80, surpassing the monthly average of 64 attacks in 2015. The country appears to be regressing to the levels of violence seen in 2014, a disturbing trend that underscores the urgency of prioritizing security over political struggles.
Despite the worsening security situation, national discourse remains dominated by political power struggles. Islamabad seems to be treating security as a routine matter rather than the existential challenge it is becoming. The Azm-e-Istehkam Vision, unveiled in June 2024, aimed to tackle militancy; however, August turned out to be the deadliest month since 2017, signaling a failure in its immediate implementation.
Conclusion: Prioritizing Security Amid Political Distractions The incident in Swat should serve as a wake-up call for Pakistan’s security apparatus. With major international events on the horizon and militant activity on the rise, the government must refocus its attention on counterterrorism. Prioritizing security over political ambitions is crucial to ensuring that Pakistan does not lose the gains made in previous years. A robust response—both operational and strategic—is needed to prevent militant groups from regaining the upper hand and pushing Pakistan into another cycle of violence.
The writer is a Managing Director at Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS)
During the week of March 7–13, 2025, Pakistan witnessed a slight decrease in militant attacks, though the intensity of violence remained unchanged. A total of 15 militant attacks were recorded, compared to 19 in the previous week. However, the week gained significant attention due to the hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a high-profile incident that unfolded over three days. The attack resulted in the tragic killing of 21 hostages — later revealed by PICSS to be off-duty security personnel traveling home — and four security forces personnel. Despite a phased rescue operation that eliminated 33 militants, the incident highlighted serious security and intelligence failures.Regionally, Balochistan saw a sharp 80% surge in militant activity, reporting nine attacks compared to five the previous week. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) experienced a 50% drop, with three attacks, while erstwhile FATA recorded a 25% decrease, reporting three incidents. The week’s militant tactics included five targeted killings, five tactical assaults, two grenade attacks, and one each of an IED explosion, a combined suicide attack and tactical assault, and a kidnapping.Security forces carried out four counter-terrorism operations, resulting in the elimination of 12 alleged militants and the arrest of 10 […]
