Forces Intensity Kinetic Response Amidst Interment Attacks PICSS Weekly Insight 13 – 19 Dec, 2024

During the week, Pakistan experienced 13 militant attacks, resulting in 12 fatalities and 18 injuries. These incidents included tactical assaults, targeted killings, IED attacks, mortar strikes, and a grenade attack, with five attacks occurring in KP, four in Balochistan, three in erstwhile FATA, and one in Sindh. In response, security forces conducted seven operations, killing 29 militants and apprehending four others, signaling an intensified kinetic response to the militant threat.

Political dialogue between the government and opposition PTI could not be started withboth sides hesitant to initiate talks despite calls for negotiation in the National Assembly. Speaker Ayaz Sadiq has offered his office to mediate, while PTI has temporarily suspended its civil disobedience campaign, awaiting the government’s response by December 22. PTI appears divided over whether to pursue reconciliation or confrontation with the government and military establishment, while the government expects PTI to abandon its civil disobedience threat to create a conducive environment for talks. Meanwhile, legal challenges for PTI founder Imran Khan and other leaders have intensified, with multiple anti-terrorism courts indicting several PTI figures, including Khan, in the GHQ attack case. Additionally, Khan and his wife face a corruption case with a verdict expected on December 23, where the prosecution appears determined to secure a conviction. PTI may need to adopt a pragmatic, non-confrontational approach to mitigate legal and political challenges.

The government’s hesitation to sign the Societies Registration (Amendment) Bill 2024, which aims to shift madrassah registration from the federal education ministry to district administrations, has sparked tensions with religious stakeholders and coalition partners. JUI-F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman has rallied significant support against the bill, joined by madrassah boards and clerics who reject state control of seminaries. Procedural missteps, including delays in addressing the president’s objections and a failure to follow constitutional timelines, have stalled the bill and raised questions about its legitimacy. Despite attempts by senior government officials to engage Rehman, inconsistent responses and consideration of amendments have emboldened opposition. The alignment of religious groups and political allies like the MQM with JUI-F underscores the growing influence of religious factions in policymaking, while delays risk deepening mistrust and exacerbating political challenges.

Pakistan’s economy is showing signs of recovery, with the State Bank of Pakistan reducing interest rates by 200 basis points to 13%, part of a series of aggressive cuts in 2024 aimed at boosting growth. Foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $12 billion for the first time in over two years, and inflation slowed to 4.9% in November. The stock market has also seen record highs, surpassing 100,000 points and reaching 113,000 at its peak, reflecting increased investor confidence. While these developments suggest a positive economic trajectory, sustained long- term growth will require structural reforms, political stability, and efforts to combat rising militancy to maintain investor trust and support further economic progress.

On December 18, the US imposed sanctions on four Pakistan-based entities for their involvement in Pakistan’s ballistic missile program, including the National Development Complex (NDC) and three Karachi-based companies. The sanctions aim to disrupt Pakistan’s missile development efforts, with the US accusing the country of developing long-range ballistic missiles that could potentially target areas outside South Asia, including the United States. Pakistan’s Foreign Office condemned the sanctions, calling them discriminatory and warning that they could exacerbate regional instability. Analysts suggest that the sanctions are influenced by Indian and Israeli lobbying, as both countries view Pakistan’s missile capabilities as a threat. The US policy, which supports India’s missile advancements while sanctioning Pakistan, has raised concerns about a growing strategic imbalance in South Asia and the potential for escalating tensions and an arms race in the region.

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During the week of March 7–13, 2025, Pakistan witnessed a slight decrease in militant attacks, though the intensity of violence remained unchanged. A total of 15 militant attacks were recorded, compared to 19 in the previous week. However, the week gained significant attention due to the hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a high-profile incident that unfolded over three days. The attack resulted in the tragic killing of 21 hostages — later revealed by PICSS to be off-duty security personnel traveling home — and four security forces personnel. Despite a phased rescue operation that eliminated 33 militants, the incident highlighted serious security and intelligence failures.Regionally, Balochistan saw a sharp 80% surge in militant activity, reporting nine attacks compared to five the previous week. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) experienced a 50% drop, with three attacks, while erstwhile FATA recorded a 25% decrease, reporting three incidents. The week’s militant tactics included five targeted killings, five tactical assaults, two grenade attacks, and one each of an IED explosion, a combined suicide attack and tactical assault, and a kidnapping.Security forces carried out four counter-terrorism operations, resulting in the elimination of 12 alleged militants and the arrest of 10 […]

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