BLA’s Shifting Claims: A Timeline of the Jaffar Express Hijacking
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The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the hijacking of the Jaffar Express at Bolan Pass’s Tunnel Number 8 near Mushkaf Dhadar, Balochistan, on March 11, 2025. Following the attack, BLA-affiliated social media accounts, including its official platforms Hakkal Media and Sagaar Media, issued a series of statements in real-time, akin to a live text-based news stream. These statements, which evolved over time, provide insight into the group’s narrative, operational claims, and shifting demands. Below is a detailed analysis of BLA’s statements and their implications, with a focus on discrepancies, false claims, and the role of Sagaar Media.
Initial Claims and Escalation (March 11, 2025)
1. First Official Statement (2:40 pm, Hakkal Media) The BLA’s first official statement, released in Urdu nearly two and a half hours after the attack began, claimed that its fighters had derailed the Jaffar Express, killed six Pakistani soldiers, and taken approximately 100 passengers hostage. The statement read: “Among the hostages are active-duty personnel from the Pakistani military, police, Anti-Terrorism Force (ATF), and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)—all of whom were traveling to Punjab on leave. The BLA issues a stark warning that if the occupying forces attempt any military intervention, all hostages will be executed. During this operation, BLA fighters have released women, children, and Baloch passengers, ensuring that all remaining hostages are serving personnel of the occupying forces. The mission is being led by the BLA’s Fidayeen Unit, Majeed Brigade, with full operational support from Fateh Squad, STOS, and our intelligence wing Zirab.”
This statement established the BLA’s narrative of targeting military personnel while claiming to spare civilians. It also introduced the group’s ultimatum against military intervention, setting the tone for subsequent communications.
2. Second Statement (3:40 pm) An hour later, the BLA released another statement claiming to have repelled a ground attack by Pakistani forces while warning of continued aerial bombardment. The group issued a final warning: “The BLA issues a final warning: if the aerial bombardment is not halted immediately, all 100+ hostages will be executed within the next hour. Majeed Brigade, STOS, Fateh Squad, and ZIRAB Unit fighters are actively engaged in countermeasures, and any further military incursion will have catastrophic consequences.” This statement marked an escalation in rhetoric, with the BLA threatening immediate execution of hostages if aerial attacks persisted. However, no evidence was provided to substantiate the claim of repelling a ground attack.
3. Third Statement (5:12 pm) At 5:12 pm, the BLA released a statement in both Urdu and English, revising its earlier claim of 100 hostages to 182. It also claimed to have killed 11 Pakistani soldiers and shot down a drone. Notably, the statement did not clarify whether the killed soldiers were among the hostages or part of the rescue force. The group repeated its threat to execute hostages but omitted the previously stated one-hour deadline.
This inconsistency in the number of hostages and the lack of clarity regarding casualties raised questions about the accuracy of the BLA’s claims.
4. Fourth Statement (6:07 pm) An hour later, the BLA issued another statement, followed by an English version at 6:17 pm, maintaining the claim of 182 hostages. It asserted that eight more Pakistani soldiers had been killed during an advance, bringing the total claimed fatalities to 20. The statement clarified that all those killed were part of the advancing forces, not hostages. This contradicted the group’s earlier ultimatum at 3:40 pm, as no hostages were reported killed despite the expired deadline.
Additionally, the statement narrowed the operational responsibility to the Majeed Brigade, omitting mention of STOS, Fateh Squad, and Zirab Unit. This shift corroborated Pakistani military claims that suicide bombers embedded among the hostages were part of the BLA’s strategy.
Shifting Narratives and Extended Ultimatum (March 11-12, 2025)
5. Fifth Statement (9:06 pm) After a three-hour silence, the BLA released another statement at 9:06 pm, further increasing the number of hostages to 214 and claiming that all were military personnel. It also asserted that over 30 Pakistani soldiers had been killed or injured during rescue attempts. For the first time, the group issued a 48-hour ultimatum, demanding:
“Pakistan is given 48 hours to immediately and unconditionally release Baloch political prisoners, forcibly disappeared persons, and national resistance activists.” The statement warned that any advance by Pakistani forces would result in the execution of all hostages and the destruction of the train.
This marked a significant shift in strategy, as the BLA transitioned from immediate threats to a longer-term negotiation posture.
6. Sixth Statement (12:40 am, March 12) At midnight, the BLA expressed frustration over the lack of negotiations and claimed that Pakistani drone strikes and shelling had caused no casualties on its side. The group issued a new ultimatum, threatening to kill 10 more hostages if Pakistani forces advanced, stating: “If advances by Pakistani forces continue, it would kill 10 more hostages even if a single fire was shot.” This statement was notable for its use of the term “more,” implying that hostages had already been killed. This corroborated Pakistani military claims and eyewitness accounts of early hostage executions. The BLA also reiterated that 40 hours remained in its ultimatum, after which it would execute five hostages every hour.
The lengthy statement accused the Pakistani state of spreading false narratives and claimed that the BLA had released civilian passengers, contradicting military reports of their rescue. The tone reflected growing desperation as no negotiations had been initiated.
Media Releases and Operational Updates (March 12, 2025)
7. Audio Message (11:31 am) At 11:31 am, the BLA released a recorded message from a Majeed Brigade fighter appealing for Baloch support. The fighter’s tone suggested a need for reinforcements, indicating operational strain. By this time, Pakistani forces had reportedly cut off supply routes using superior airpower.
8. First Video Release (1:33 pm) The BLA released a 1:23-minute video at 1:33 pm, showing an IED blast halting the train and hostages divided into three groups surrounded by armed fighters. The video also depicted BLA fighters positioned on a mountain, likely for tactical advantage.
9. Audio Calls (3:24 pm and 4:46 pm) At 3:24 pm, the BLA released an audio call between a fighter and high command, discussing the situation on the ground. The fighter claimed that 40 personnel had been killed and that Pakistani reinforcements had halted. A second call at 4:46 pm reiterated these claims, with the fighter asserting that over 200 hostages were in custody and that a drone had been shot down. However, the authenticity of these calls could not be verified, raising the possibility of information warfare.
10. Seventh Statement (5:05 pm) At 5:05 pm, the BLA issued another statement, reminding Pakistani authorities that 24 hours of the ultimatum had passed without negotiations. It reiterated its threat to execute five hostages every hour after the deadline and accused Pakistan of disregarding the lives of its personnel. The statement concluded with a “final call” for Pakistan to engage in prisoner exchange talks.
This statement underscored the BLA’s expectation of forced negotiations, which did not materialize.
11. Eighth Statement (6:51 pm) At 6:51 pm, the BLA claimed to have killed 50 hostages in response to a Pakistani rescue attempt, while admitting the loss of
three fighters. It maintained that 150 hostages remained in its custody and repeated its ultimatum. However, this statement coincided with Pakistani military claims of a successful rescue operation, suggesting a disconnect between BLA leadership and ground fighters.
Sudden Silence and Discrepancies (March 12-13, 2025)
12. Silence After Pakistani Military’s Claim (7:00 pm, March 12) Following the Pakistani military’s announcement of a successful rescue operation at approximately 7:00 pm on March 12, the BLA’s official media channels, including Hakkal Media, went completely silent. This abrupt halt in communication was striking, as the group had been issuing statements almost continuously since the attack began. The silence lasted for over 19 hours, until 2:14 pm on March 13, suggesting that the BLA was caught off guard by the Pakistani military’s operation and was unable to respond effectively.
This sudden silence is a critical discrepancy in the BLA’s narrative. If the group had indeed been in control of the situation, as it claimed in its earlier statements, it would have likely issued immediate counter-statements denying the Pakistani military’s claims or providing evidence to support its own version of events. Instead, the prolonged silence indicates that the BLA was either unaware of the ground realities or had lost contact with its fighters, undermining its credibility.
13. Final Statement (2:14 pm, March 13)
At 2:14 pm on March 13, the BLA finally broke its silence with a statement denying the Pakistani military’s claims of a successful rescue operation. The statement read: “The claims made by the Pakistani army spokesperson (ISPR) are a failed attempt to cover up lies and defeat. The ground reality is that the battle continues on multiple fronts, and the enemy is suffering heavy casualties and military losses. The occupying army has neither achieved victory on the battlefield nor managed to save its hostage personnel.”
The statement also expressed disappointment over the lack of negotiations and reiterated demands for the release of Baloch prisoners. However, the delayed response and lack of concrete evidence to counter Pakistani claims further weakened the BLA’s position.
Role of Sagaar Media
While Hakkal Media served as the BLA’s official channel, Sagaar Media played a complementary role by amplifying the group’s narrative and attempting to gather evidence to support its claims. Notably, Sagaar Media actively scoured open-source platforms, such as Facebook, to collect photographs and details of Pakistani soldiers allegedly killed during the hijacking incident. This effort was aimed at corroborating the BLA’s claims of inflicting significant casualties on Pakistani forces.
However, Sagaar Media’s reliance on open-source information revealed a critical weakness in the BLA’s operational intelligence. Despite its efforts, Sagaar could only identify details of 23 personnel from social media, a fraction of the BLA’s claimed fatalities. This discrepancy highlights the group’s inability to independently verify its own claims and its reliance on unverified, publicly available information. Furthermore, Sagaar’s silence from 11:00 pm on March 12 until 2:15 pm on March 13 mirrored Hakkal Media’s abrupt halt in communication, suggesting a coordinated loss of operational awareness following the Pakistani military’s rescue operation.
Key Discrepancies and False Claims
Inconsistent Hostage Numbers: The BLA repeatedly revised the number of hostages, starting with 100, then 182, and finally 214. These inconsistencies raise questions about the group’s ability to accurately assess the situation on the ground.
Unverified Casualty Claims: The BLA’s claims of killing Pakistani soldiers and shooting down a drone were not substantiated with evidence. The lack of clarity regarding whether the killed soldiers were hostages or part of the rescue force further undermines the credibility of these claims.
Failure to Execute Ultimatums: Despite issuing multiple ultimatums threatening to execute hostages, the BLA never provided evidence of carrying out these threats. This suggests that the group’s threats were primarily a tactic to force negotiations rather than a reflection of its operational capabilities.
Sudden Silence After Rescue Operation: The BLA’s abrupt silence following the Pakistani military’s announcement of a successful rescue operation is a significant discrepancy. If the group had been in control, it would have likely issued immediate counter-statements. The prolonged silence indicates a loss of operational control and communication breakdown.
Reliance on Open-Source Information: The BLA’s affiliated media channel, Sagaar Media, relied on open-source information from social media to corroborate its claims, highlighting the group’s limited operational awareness and inability to independently verify its own narratives.
Conclusion
The BLA’s handling of the Jaffar Express hijacking incident reveals significant discrepancies and false claims. The group’s inconsistent narratives, unverified casualty reports, and failure to execute ultimatums undermine its credibility. The sudden silence following the Pakistani military’s rescue operation further exposes the BLA’s operational weaknesses and inability to adapt to changing ground realities. Sagaar Media’s reliance on open-source information to gather evidence of casualties underscores the group’s lack of operational intelligence and reliance on unverified data.
While the BLA demonstrated a capacity for coordinated attacks, its reliance on propaganda, lack of contingency planning, and inability to independently verify its claims ultimately weakened its position. This incident underscores the challenges faced by insurgent groups in maintaining operational coherence and credibility under pressure.
During the week of March 7–13, 2025, Pakistan witnessed a slight decrease in militant attacks, though the intensity of violence remained unchanged. A total of 15 militant attacks were recorded, compared to 19 in the previous week. However, the week gained significant attention due to the hijacking of the Jaffar Express by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), a high-profile incident that unfolded over three days. The attack resulted in the tragic killing of 21 hostages — later revealed by PICSS to be off-duty security personnel traveling home — and four security forces personnel. Despite a phased rescue operation that eliminated 33 militants, the incident highlighted serious security and intelligence failures.Regionally, Balochistan saw a sharp 80% surge in militant activity, reporting nine attacks compared to five the previous week. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) experienced a 50% drop, with three attacks, while erstwhile FATA recorded a 25% decrease, reporting three incidents. The week’s militant tactics included five targeted killings, five tactical assaults, two grenade attacks, and one each of an IED explosion, a combined suicide attack and tactical assault, and a kidnapping.Security forces carried out four counter-terrorism operations, resulting in the elimination of 12 alleged militants and the arrest of 10 […]
