Evolving Af-Pak Relations: Progress Amid Persistent Challenges. PICSS Weekly Insight 06-12 Dec,2024

Militant attacks persisted across Pakistan, but security forces responded with a robust kinetic approach, inflicting significant casualties on militants. During the reviewed week, 14 militant attacks resulted in 17 deaths and eight injuries. These included nine attacks in Balochistan, four in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and one in erstwhile FATA, comprising six tactical assaults, four targeted killings, three IED explosions, and one kidnapping-related killing. Meanwhile, security forces conducted eight operations, killing 59 militants and apprehending one, with 30 fatalities in FATA, 15 in Balochistan, and 14 in mainland KP. The militants primarily targeted the Pashtun belt, reflecting a focus on the TTP and affiliates, while the nine attacks in Balochistan suggest an increase in Baloch militant activity, possibly correlating with the northern focus on Pashtun militants.

PTI faces significant internal divisions and mounting legal and political challenges, with a stark contrast in strategies between its founder, Imran Khan, and the party’s leadership. While Khan adopts a confrontational approach, advocating civil disobedience to pressure the military establishment and preempt a potential military trial, the second-tier leadership favors dialogue to de-escalate tensions. The government, however, remains reluctant to engage PTI, demanding accountability for the May 9 violence. Simultaneously, the military has intensified scrutiny of former ISI chief Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, formally indicting him on multiple charges, including political activities and violations of anti-espionage laws, while keeping political allegations open- ended for strategic leverage. Legal complexities also loom as the Supreme Court hears appeals on military trials of civilians, creating uncertainty around verdicts. With PTI’s internal struggles, the establishment’s response, and legal outcomes converging, the coming weeks are critical for Pakistan’s political and legal landscape.

The government’s push, made at the behest of JUI-F chief, to amend the Societies Registration Act, 1860, shifting control of seminaries back to deputy commissioners from the Directorate General of Religious Education (DGRE), has sparked resistance from religious leaders and relations between JUI-F the government soared. While proponents argue the amendments are necessary to address international concerns on terrorism and FATF compliance, opponents warn of risks to seminary independence and national security. Despite parliamentary passage, the legislation remains unsigned due to technicalities, fueling political tensions as Fazlur Rehman declared it law under constitutional provisions. Amid threats of protests and unresolved disputes, the government faces the dual challenge of managing religious sensitivities and avoiding further political destabilization, particularly when the threat of PTI has not diminished.

Recent developments in Af-Pak relations show cautious progress but are marred by enduring challenges. High-level meetings, including talks between Pakistani and Afghan officials and China’s proposed trilateral foreign ministers’ dialogue, signal renewed diplomatic engagement. Positive steps include the Afghan government’s relocation of TTP fighters away from the border and Pakistan’s appointment of an experienced Special Representative for Afghanistan. However, the assassination of Khalil Haqqani by ISKP underscores persistent security threats that could destabilize relations. ISKP’s actions aim to exploit mutual distrust and hinder cooperation, jeopardizing recent progress. Sustained dialogue and joint security measures are crucial to overcoming these challenges and stabilizing the region, particularly as strained ties have already caused a significant decline in bilateral trade.

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