Significant Development(s) of the Week:PICSS Weekly Insight 22-28 Nov,2024

During the week under review, Pakistan experienced a relatively low intensity of militant attacks, with 14 incidents resulting in six deaths and 15 injuries. These included IED explosions,tactical assaults, target killings, and rocket attacks, primarily occurring in the erstwhile FATA, KP, Balochistan, and Punjab. Meanwhile, security forces undertook nine operations, eliminating 22 militants.

The unrest in Kurram tribal district further underscored governance failures. Freshsectarian and tribal violence for more than a week left over 90 people dead, with ineffective ceasefire agreements failing to stem the violence. Efforts to enforce peace, including jirga-mediated agreements, saw limited success as trenches remained occupied and sporadic clashes continued. The persistent instability reflects deep-rooted issues like land disputes and sectarian divides, compounded by the lack of proactive governance and sustained conflict resolution mechanisms.

In parallel, political unrest escalated as the PTI staged protests to demand the release of its leader, Imran Khan. Despite initial indications of possible negotiations, the party rejected the government’s offer to stage demonstrations at an alternate location. This led to violent clashes in Islamabad, with casualties on both sides, including three Rangers personnel. PTI protesters breached security measures, reaching sensitive locations despite a government’s security measures amidst media blackout and internet disruptions. Eventually, the leadership withdrew from the protest, leaving participants in disarray. The fallout included mass arrests and intensified internal divisions within PTI, raising questions about its future strategy and leadership credibility.

On November 27, high-level Pakistan-China military talks, led by General Zhang Youxia, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, and Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir, emphasized counter-terrorism and regional stability. Discussions covered bilateral defense cooperation, regional dynamics, and threats posed by militant groups in Afghanistan and. Indian regional activities. Amid concerns over rising attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan, joint military exercises, “Warrior-VIII,” are underway to bolster counter-terrorism capabilities. While China has reportedly offered advanced equipment and intelligence support, unconfirmed reports suggest tensions over China’s push for joint or independent security mechanisms for its nationals, which Pakistan appears reluctant to accept.

Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi announced that Afghan nationals wishing to remain in Islamabad after December 31, 2024, must secure a no-objection certificate (NOC) from the deputy commissioner. The move appears politically motivated, aimed at preventing Afghan participation in protests following allegations of their involvement in PTI-led unrest. Although unrelated to Pakistan’s broader refugee policy, the measure reflects the government’s efforts to curb domestic political instability. Concurrently, the prime minister proposed forming a specialized anti-riot force to manage protests, underscoring the administration’s focus on maintaining law and order.

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