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Iran-Pakistan Engagement Amidst Security Challenges and Regional Volatility: PICSS Weekly Insight 01-07 Nov, 2024

During the reviewed week, Pakistan saw a slight reduction in militant attacks, though violence persists, with 16 incidents resulting in 25 fatalities and 59 injuries. The attacks spanned across former FATA, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and Balochistan, including six incidents each in FATA and KP and four in Balochistan. Half of these attacks were tactical assaults, with additional incidents involving targeted attacks, IEDs, grenades, rockets, and mortars. Security forces conducted six actions, killing 18 militants and capturing two. 

The Pakistan Navy recently conducted a successful flight test of an indigenously developed ballistic missile, demonstrating precision capabilities with a 350-kilometer range for land and sea targets. The test, witnessed by senior naval officers and scientists, garnered congratulations from Pakistan’s top leadership, underlining the navy’s strengthened defense capabilities. 

On November 5, the Judicial Commission of Pakistan (JCP) formed the Supreme Court’s constitutional bench by appointing Justice Amin-ud-Din Khan as its head for a 60-day period. This move follows the 26th Constitutional Amendment, which revised Chief Justice selection processes and enabled the formation of specialized constitutional benches. However, the judiciary is facing internal tensions, with Justices Mansoor Ali Shah and Munib Akhtar pressing Chief Justice Yahya Afridi for a full court hearing on petitions challenging the amendment. Afridi’s decision to defer a full court session and delegate the petitions to the new bench has temporarily stabilized the issue, although discontent lingers within judicial circles over transparency and public trust in the judiciary. 

Recent legislative changes in Pakistan signal a centralization of power within the executive branch, with Parliament passing six major bills with minimal opposition, including extended terms for military and judicial leaders. These reforms, seen as measures to streamline governance, increase the military’s role within civilian administration, a move that could consolidate the current coalition’s control. Speculation suggests that Saudi Arabia might mediate to facilitate Imran Khan’s exit from Pakistan, potentially restoring political stability. Meanwhile, General Asim Munir’s five-year extension, bolstered by diplomatic successes like securing $2.8 billion in investments from Saudi Arabia, underscores the government’s focus on stability and foreign partnerships. 

Pakistan’s economy shows signs of recovery, fueled by fiscal reforms and significant foreign investments from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Azerbaijan. The State Bank’s decision to cut the policy rate to 15 percent has spurred investor confidence, alongside a drop in inflation and government efforts to ease electricity prices. The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) has responded positively to these measures, while investment pledges from key allies signal optimism for Pakistan’s economic outlook. Surpluses in both the fiscal and primary balances, along with a narrowed current account deficit, further reflect the country’s improved fiscal position. For sustained growth, however, security and political stability remain crucial, particularly to realize 
foreign investments fully.

In Balochistan, security concerns and economic hardship have deepened public discontent, as evidenced by Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) Chairman Mahmood Khan Achakzai’s planned jirgas to address local security issues along national highways. The unsafe conditions on these routes have eroded public confidence, while economic hardships are exacerbated by the government’s closure of the border with Iran, which opposition leaders argue disrupts legitimate trade and economic lifelines for locals. This discontent reflects ongoing tensions between the government’s security priorities and the region’s economic needs, with local leaders calling for urgent reforms. 

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s and Army Chief General Asim Munir’s recent engagements with Saudi Arabia highlight Pakistan’s focus on deepening its strategic and economic ties with the kingdom. Saudi Arabia’s increased investment commitment of $2.8 billion and a series of new agreements underscore its support for Pakistan’s economic recovery. General Munir’s visit further solidified the military partnership, marking Pakistan’s continued security support to Saudi Arabia, while aligning both countries’ regional security interests. 

During Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Pakistan, both nations strengthened their commitment to tackling shared security issues, focusing on counter- terrorism, border cooperation, and condemning Israel’s actions in Gaza. Araghchi met with key Pakistani leaders, expressing solidarity on Palestine and supporting the stalled Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Following the visit, a cross-border operation in Iran targeting Afghan-Tajik militants highlighted immediate security challenges along their shared border, underscoring the need for Iran-Pakistan cooperation to manage regional stability and shared threats. 

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